The Strange Case of New Jersey

The New Jersey governor’s election is less than two weeks away, and it deserves far more attention than I have been giving it. Nevertheless, I will now belatedly share some thoughts that have been stewing in my head.

Here is the state of the race:

New Jersey Governor's Election as of 10/25

New Jersey Governor's Election as of 10/25

There are several unmistakable trends here. The challenger Attorney Chris Christie gains a double-digit lead over the incumbent, for fairly obvious reasons. Then, mysteriously, he proceeds to lose it. Incumbent Governor Jon Corzine’s share of the vote mostly remains flat but – and this is important – trends slightly upward. While the two main candidates blast each other, third-party candidate Chris Daggett draws support at an accelerating rate.

Mr. Corzine’s positive trend should encourage Democrats; it indicates that he is actually building support, not just tearing down Mr. Christie. In addition, expect Mr. Daggett to overperform on election day as he reaches viability. Normally, third-party candidates perform below their polling; this election, however, with both major candidates highly unpopular, constitutes anything but a normal situation.

The strangest and most interesting part of the campaign, however, has been the story of Mr. Christie. He challenged an unpopular incumbent, under hugely favorable macropolitical conditions, and by summer had attained a double-digit lead. Then Mr. Christie’s support began sliding, a trend that continues to this day. He went from polling barely below 50% to polling barely below 40%.

I am at a loss to explain why this has happened. The fundamentals behind the race haven’t changed; the economy remains weak and Mr. Corzine much disliked. Scandal has not upended Christie; if anything, it has hurt Corzine more. Obviously the governor has run the better campaign, but campaigns generally do not erase double-digit leads.

Indeed, this race runs counter to a fundamental theme of politics: if a challenger of an unpopular incumbent attains a substantial lead, it is almost always a futile effort eroding the advantage. The unpopular incumbent – whether it be Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter, or Rick Santorum – will inevitably lose. In fact, I cannot name a single election in which a candidate with a double-digit edge, facing a disliked incumbent, has lost that edge barring major scandal.

Part of the answer may lay with Chris Christie himself. The man seems, plain and simple, a bad candidate. For some reason or other, the inhabitants of New Jersey just don’t like the guy. It’s the same problem that cursed John Edwards and Mitt Romney during the primaries. No matter how well-run their campaigns, no matter how good their ideas, people just wouldn’t vote for them. Christie perfectly fits this description – an irony, given that Republicans nominated him because he appeared a strong candidate.

The same, of course, could be said for Corzine; both nominees have tremendous weaknesses. That is why this race is so close less than two weeks before election day.

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This entry was posted in 2009 Gubernatorial Elections, Election Analysis and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to The Strange Case of New Jersey

  1. bruno mars says:

    I was trying to add your RSS feed to my reader, but it didn’t work. =/ Any ideas on other ways to subscribe to your site?

    -Bruno

  2. alexhiggins732 says:

    Regardless of who Chris Daggett hurts, Daggett is not a spoiler and he can win.

    Daggett has broken 20 percent and can win. The Washington Post says at 20% there is a path for Daggett to win and political analysts say with 25% in the polls Daggett can win.

    Now its a matter of getting that last 100,000 votes to get Daggett in a position to win.

    To do that we are reaching out to voters that want to Vote for Daggett but are afraid a vote for Daggett is a wasted vote. So…

    The I’ll vote for Daggett Pledge:

    “I want to vote for Chris Daggett, but only if he has a real chance of winning. He needs pledges from 100,000 people like me. I don’t want to wait til Election Day to find out that those votes existed, but we were all afraid to cast them. So, I’m signing my name below, with my address to prove that I’m real, and pledging that if 100,000 people like me sign up, I will vote for Daggett.”

    Take the I’ll Vote For Daggett Pledge Here

    Spread the word about this pledge, so we can bring an end to politics as usual.

    • inoljt says:

      Though I’m not sure you read my post…

      I’ll say that I predicted Daggett incorrectly. I thought that his support would keep on rising, and that he had a good chance of actually winning. Recent polls indicate this not to be the case.

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