I’ve been looking at both governor’s races today, paying more attention to New Jersey.
In Virginia Deeds lost by a greater margin than the polls predicted – not a surprise, given that when one candidate holds a double-digit lead, polls usually predict the race will be closer than it actually is.
Two things that are worrisome for Democrats:
Along Virginia’s western panhandle, Deeds lost by over 20% in every county. That’s a fairly worrisome, because until fairly recently these counties used to go Democratic (they went for Kerry, didn’t for Obama). And Deeds was a rural candidate. So that area of the state appears to be undergoing some reddening.
Also, with 41% of the county’s vote in, Deeds and McDonnell are essentially tied in Fairfax – the epicenter of Obama’s victory. I find that statistic very troublesome, given that Democrats cannot win Virginia without it.
I’m going to predict right now that Mr. Christie will be the new governor. Corzine’s margins just aren’t strong enough; he’s losing both Union and Bergen County right now, which usually go Democratic. Maybe that’ll somehow change, but things aren’t looking good.
According to swingstateproject, Corzine also needs to get 31% of the vote in heavily Republican Hunterdon County. Right now he’s at 24%, with 90% of the county reporting. Monmouth and Ocean County’s – suburban Republican-leaning places – are also giving Christie over 60% of the vote, better than he needs.
Moreover, a lot of Democratic counties are halfway reported – Camden, Essex, and Hudson. But Christie’s still ahead by about 9%.
I’m going to call it for Mr. Christie. A shame, since Corzine was a better governor than the people of New Jersey gave him credit for.
Edit: I previously posted that Daggett would do better than the polls indicated. I’ll say right now that I was completely wrong.