How 2012 Helps Prospects for Reforming the Electoral College

The electoral college is one of the lingering undemocratic parts of American politics. Unlike almost every other country in the world, America elects its presidents not via the popular vote but rather via a strange system of “electoral votes” distributed by states. The good news is that this system generally reflects the popular will. The bad news is that it occasionally fails, as last happened in 2000.

Since then there has been a push to reform the electoral college so that all states cast their electoral votes for the winners of the popular vote. Currently half the states needed to implement the reform have signed on.

The reform is mostly pushed by Democrats. This is because in 2000 the popular vote winner but electoral college loser was the Democratic candidate. As long electoral college reform was only pushed by Democrats, it was likely to fail. It is almost impossible to get enough states to sign on with complete Republican opposition.

In 2012, however, something quite interesting happened. The electoral college helped Obama quite a bit. For the final months of the campaign Obama was often behind in the national polls but still leading in the state Ohio. It was seen as a very conceivable possibility that Obama would lose the popular vote but win the electoral college and remain president because of Ohio. Even after the first presidential debate, Romney led in the popular vote but never in the electoral college.

It should be noted that these polls were wrong; they underestimated Obama nationally and put Ohio as more Democratic than a lot of states (Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia) which ended up more favorable to Obama. But the perception, based on these flawed polls, was what mattered.

So a lot of hard-core Republicans got to see the electoral college really hurting them during the most important campaign of all.

Moreover, the electoral college actually has leaned Democratic for three elections in a row. In 2004 John Kerry was 118,601 votes away in Ohio from becoming president while losing the popular vote. In 2008 John McCain would have had to win the popular vote by 1.7% to win Colorado and become president. In 2012 the votes are still being counted, but it’s very certain that Obama could have lost the popular vote and still remained president.

This is good news for electoral college reform. Hopefully Republicans will not forget how polls showed them leading the popular vote but still behind in the electoral college during October 2012. Republicans now are aware that the electoral college hurts them. It would be in their self-interest to shift to a popular vote.

There are several blue or purple states in which the state Republican Party is fairly strong and has prevented electoral college reform. The hope is that in a few of these states some Republicans will now support a popular vote. It is also possible that Republicans by themselves will enact popular vote bills on their own initiative. Arizona Governor Jan Brewer, for instance, has publicly made supportive statements on a popular vote. Of course this is pure self-interest, since she (like many Republicans) recognizes that the electoral college now hurts Republicans.

But a popularly elected president looks closer than ever. As long as it was only a Democratic initiative, it didn’t look like the popular vote would be enacted. Now, hopefully, some Republicans will also see that the popular vote is both something that helps a Republican presidential candidate and (more importantly for American but probably not Republicans) the right thing to do.

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4 Responses to How 2012 Helps Prospects for Reforming the Electoral College

  1. Brett Heffner says:

    Obama did approximately as well in Colorado as he did in PA. I am a bit worried about future Presidential elections in my home state. There is a lot more at work in the SW counties than what Governor Corbett could dream of making happen. In the SE suburbs, Obama lost Chester County although Romney failed to get a majority of its vote and Obama only carried Bucks by 1.5%. The Romney states plus Florida, Ohio, and PA would bring a Republican nominee 273 EV’s, so that VA and CO would not matter!

    • inoljt says:

      True, the electoral map benefit for Democrats is quite great. I’m not quite sure why that is.

      With respect to Pennsylvania, I think that it’s hard to say. So far the Republican trend of the southwest has been balanced by the Democratic trend of the southeast. It certainly looks like a state that could move Republican, demographically. I think we need a few more elections to see.

      As for Chester County, it’s always been a very Republican County. Obama winning it at all in 2008 was quite a feat. I guess that Democrats will need to win it by more and more in the future in order to keep Pennsylvania an even PVI.

      I’m also consistently surprised by the strong Democratic performance in Bucks County. After all, Bucks County is a very very white and very working-class place. By all rights it ought to be going for the Republican. It’s pretty amazing that a person like Obama with his problems amongst the white working-class can still win Bucks County. But I guess that Democrats will also need to do better in Bucks County in the future to balance out the southwest Republican trend.

      Also, let’s put an optimistic spin on things. Before Republicans didn’t need Pennsylvania to win. Now they do, but they’re still losing the state!

  2. Brett Heffner says:

    I meant now than in 2004 for the electoral-college hill. Also, has Obama underpeformed in my home state of Pennsylvania, or is it slowly trending Republican in Presidential elections? The pro-GOP trend is particularly noticeable in the southwestern counties other than Allegheny.

  3. Brett Heffner says:

    The popular-vote tie scenatio would have favoured Obama in the Electoral College 285-253 in this case. The Southwest Strategy has paid off for Democrats in Presidential elections and Virginia is also well on its way to being a Democratic-leaning state, so the electoral-college hill is steeper for the GOP now than in 2012. Democratic expansion of the electoral map was more than enough to offset the net shift of Congressional seats in the GOP’s favour after the 2010 census and things will probably even out after the 2020 census.

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